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The 2026 mortgage renewal wave: what your new payment could actually look like

Short answer: Whether your renewal payment goes up or down depends entirely on the rate you locked in years ago versus today's rate. Either way, don't just sign the letter your bank mails you without shopping it first.

Why this renewal year is different

A huge number of five-year mortgages signed during 2020 and 2021, when rates were sitting near record lows, are coming up for renewal now. Some homeowners locked in well under 2%. Renewing at today's rates is a real jump for that group. Meanwhile, anyone who took a mortgage at the rate peak a couple of years later could actually see their payment go down. Same year, two completely different experiences, and both are normal.

How to actually estimate your new payment

Take your current balance, your new rate, and your remaining amortization, and run it through a payment calculator (we've got one on the tools page if you want to play with a few scenarios). The two numbers that move the needle most are the rate difference and how much amortization you have left. A smaller remaining balance cushions the blow more than people expect.

The letter from your bank is a starting point, not an offer

Your current lender will mail or email a renewal offer a few months before your term ends. It is usually not their best rate. Banks bank on the fact that most people just sign and move on. Shopping that offer against other lenders takes maybe twenty minutes of your time and routinely turns up a lower rate, sometimes enough to offset a good chunk of the payment increase entirely.

If the new payment genuinely doesn't fit your budget

You have more options than "pay it or panic." Extending your amortization back out (if you're eligible) lowers the payment, at the cost of more interest over time. Switching lenders at renewal, without breaking your mortgage, is penalty-free and worth doing anyway. And if you're carrying other high-interest debt, folding it into a renewal refinance can actually lower your total monthly outflow even if the mortgage payment itself goes up a bit.

Renewing sometime in the next year?

We'll pull your current terms, run the real numbers, and shop it against other lenders before you sign anything. No cost, no obligation.

Check my renewal options